Will The Bitcoin Surge: A Cinematic Forecast for November 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $106,600 on November 3, 2025, extending early-November weakness after a rough October. Stocks are attempting to extend November gains with corporate earnings and AI spending in focus, while OPEC+ agreed a small December hike and will pause output increases in Q1 2026—key cross-asset drivers to watch.

Introduction
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $106,600 on November 3, 2025, extending early-November weakness after a rough October. Stocks are attempting to extend November gains with corporate earnings and AI spending in focus, while OPEC+ agreed a small December hike and will pause output increases in Q1 2026—key cross-asset drivers to watch..
Market Drivers
The U.S. stock futures rose as Wall Street looks to extend winning streaks in November. This trend is supported by the broader economic environment, including corporate profits and AI spending. The OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of 2026 could impact global markets, adding to the uncertainty in the stock market.
Scenarios
Base
Bitcoin price: $109,380. The base scenario shows a steady price increase, with no major catalysts or invalidation signals. The market remains in a positive phase, with corporate profits and AI spending driving investor interest.
Bull
Bitcoin price: $109,380. The bull scenario indicates a potential rebound, with key narratives and positioning shifts. The market is expected to see continued growth, supported by corporate profits and AI spending.
Bear
Bitcoin price: $109,380. The bear scenario suggests a potential decline, with policy risks and market uncertainty. The OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes adds to the uncertainty, affecting global markets.
Risks & Invalidation
Top risks include the OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of 2026, which could affect global markets. Other risks include market volatility and policy changes. Invalidation signals indicate that the price may not confirm the base scenario, suggesting a potential reversal.
Actionable Takeaways
Retire early if you can, as the stock market is showing signs of a potential rebound. Consider investing in AI-driven stocks to capitalize on corporate profits. The OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes adds to the uncertainty, so stay informed and adjust your strategy accordingly.
