Scenario-Based Bitcoin Analysis

The current technical landscape for BTC/USDT suggests a bearish bias, with key indicators pointing towards potential downward movement.

Current Technical Scenario

Trend: The current trend is bearish, as evidenced by the EMA 50 at 114278.90 being below the EMA 200 at 117007.09. The last close price was 114965.62.

Momentum: The MACD histogram indicates a bearish momentum with a value of -102.65. The MACD values are 304.99 and 407.64, respectively.

Sentiment: Despite some bullish sentiment, buyers are currently struggling to gain control.

Divergence: A recent bullish divergence was detected, but it is weak, indicating potential for further downside.

Key Levels: Psychological levels for the current week are high at 111955.27 and low at 109641.54. Previous week’s levels were higher, at 124031.44 and 121574.66.

Order Imbalance: High selling pressure was noted around June 30, 2025, which could signal a potential reversal if this area is breached.

Volatility: The Average True Range (ATR) is 762.69, indicating high volatility and expected price swings of approximately 762.69 per hour.

Risk Assessment

• Downward Pressure: The bearish MACD and divergent price action suggest ongoing downward pressure.
• Reversal Risk: While there is a weak bullish divergence, a break below the recent lows could trigger a reversal.
• Support/Resistance: Key support levels are around 109641.54, while resistance is near 111955.27.

Summary

Given the bearish trend, weak momentum, and high volatility, the bias leans towards a bearish move in the next few hours. Bias: bearish in the next few hours.

Actionable Recommendations

• Short-Term: Consider short positions or use stop-loss orders to manage risk.
• Risk Management: Set tight stop-losses and consider trailing stops to protect profits.
• Watchlist: Monitor the key levels and order imbalance areas closely for potential reversals.